Tesla has been ramping up excitement around its much-anticipated “Robotaxi Day,” set to take place on October 10 at Warner Brothers Studios in Los Angeles.
Originally scheduled for August, this event is expected to showcase Tesla’s plans and designs for its robotaxi service.
The announcement, paired with Elon Musk’s tweet teasing “We, Robot” as a groundbreaking moment for the company, has raised expectations to an all-time high.
Yet, when the event was delayed, Tesla’s stock took a noticeable dip—reflecting the immense pressure surrounding the event.
But here’s the issue: Tesla doesn’t have a functional robotaxi system—at least not one that is ready for the road.
While Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) feature can sometimes manage entire trips without human intervention, these successes are intermittent at best.
This is where competitors like Waymo were nearly a decade ago, and even today, Waymo is still working on scaling its service, which remains in limited commercial availability.
Tesla’s FSD is far from being fully autonomous, and getting to that stage requires consistency—like completing 50,000 rides without intervention, something Waymo has been able to achieve. Tesla, however, is still working on its capability to do this consistently.
If Tesla isn’t ready to unveil a fully working robotaxi, what might it present at the event? Many experts and industry insiders are speculating about what Tesla could offer to live up to the hype, especially if they don’t have a fully operational system.
One possibility is that Tesla could showcase a new vehicle model equipped with their FSD software, but this would likely be underwhelming for investors and critics who are expecting something revolutionary.
At the very least, we can expect Tesla to reveal some kind of vehicle designed specifically for autonomous taxi services.
This might be a car without steering wheels or pedals, potentially designed for two passengers or something more luxurious like a cyber truck-inspired workspace.
However, the challenge is that the world has already seen many such prototypes from other automakers. Companies like Google, Volvo, Toyota, Mercedes, and others have all showcased vehicles tailored for robotaxi services.
Some of these are small, sleek designs, while others resemble larger, toaster-shaped models like those developed by Zoox or Cruise.
To stand out, Tesla will need to offer something genuinely new. It’s also likely that the vehicle will be able to operate without supervision in a controlled environment, like the closed lot at Warner Brothers Studios.
This kind of controlled demo has been done by many other companies in the industry, though most use LIDAR—a sensor technology that Tesla has consistently rejected in favor of its camera-based approach.
Another possibility is the introduction of a ride-hailing app designed for their future robotaxi fleet. Tesla could also demo some innovations in user experience, possibly showcasing what passengers might do during rides.
While many companies have presented concepts for in-car entertainment or productivity tools, the reality is that most people will likely spend their time staring at their phones, much like they do in current rideshare services.
Elon Musk has been predicting that Tesla cars will achieve full self-driving capabilities “within a year” for nearly a decade. However, these promises have become something of a joke in the industry.
A truly self-driving car would allow passengers to sleep or completely disengage from the driving process—something Tesla’s FSD system is nowhere near achieving.
It’s possible that this event could simply be another instance where Musk offers a planned course demo, once again promising that the real breakthrough is just around the corner.
The event’s title, “We, Robot,” suggests that Tesla could use the occasion to also talk about its humanoid robot project.
Previous demos of Tesla’s humanoid robot have been underwhelming, with some presentations featuring humans in robot costumes rather than functioning prototypes.
However, if Tesla has made any advancements in humanoid robotics, this could steal the spotlight from the robotaxi presentation.
In a more gimmicky move, Tesla could attempt to install a version of its FSD software into a humanoid robot and have it operate a vehicle.
While this would be more of a publicity stunt than a viable solution, it would undoubtedly get people talking.
A more practical demonstration could involve showing how the robot could handle tasks like robotic charging—an area that Tesla has been exploring for some time.
Despite the challenges, Tesla is sure to pitch the long-term vision of robotaxis as the future of transportation.
This vision includes improved safety, time savings, and the potential for significant economic benefits. Robotaxis has the potential to reshape cities and reduce the need for individual car ownership.
However, Tesla’s unique idea of allowing Tesla owners to rent out their vehicles as part of a robotaxi network seems less feasible with the introduction of a custom-designed robotaxi without traditional controls.
The economics of renting out personal cars for robotaxi use remain dubious, even for vehicles that still have steering wheels and pedals.
There’s also speculation that Tesla could use this event to unveil a new low-cost electric vehicle, often referred to as “Model 2.” Priced between $25,000 and $29,000, this smaller car could serve as an entry-level option for those looking to buy an EV.
If Tesla were to reveal this new model, it could easily overshadow any disappointment about the robotaxi project.
Musk has previously stated that reports about this project being canceled were inaccurate, making this a plausible surprise at the event.
One area where Tesla could make strides is in autonomous charging. While Tesla is working on wireless charging, which allows cars to charge without human intervention, this technology is still in its early stages. Wireless charging is more convenient but comes with energy losses and slower charging times.
Another possibility is a robotic charging solution. Tesla demonstrated a robotic “snake” charger several years ago, and a more refined version of this technology could be shown.
Alternatively, Tesla’s humanoid robot could be trained to plug-in cars, providing a more flexible and cost-effective solution than installing robotic arms at each charging station.
While Tesla may not be close to achieving full robotaxi functionality, it could announce advancements in highway self-driving capabilities.
Mercedes already offers a car that can handle stop-and-go traffic on highways and recently upgraded it to drive at 60 mph in certain conditions.
If Tesla can bring similar capabilities to its cars, it would be a major selling point for FSD customers.
Tesla’s Robotaxi Day has generated enormous anticipation, but whether the event will live up to the hype remains uncertain.
Tesla’s ability to capture public attention is unparalleled, but delivering on its promises has proven much more difficult.
Whether the company unveils a new vehicle, a humanoid robot, or some other technological breakthrough, the real test will be whether they can move beyond flashy demos and bring a fully autonomous robotaxi to market—a goal that remains tantalizingly out of reach.
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